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[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects

As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law.
Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time.
It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency.
The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one.
best fits
Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two.
worst fits
If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively.
(2) C James Wiseman, Memphis
A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970?
Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5.
Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat.
Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center.
best fits
We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6).
worst fits
Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick.
(3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Another big man? I may be showing my age here.
Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker.
Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player.
While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.)
best fits
The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case.
worst fits
As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade.
(4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings)
Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter.
No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical.
At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status.
LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie.
So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks.
best fits
If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time.
worst fits
Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place.
(5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel
The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year.
In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5.
In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets.
best fits
If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential.
worst fits
I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there.
(6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions.
Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.)
Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot.
In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet.
best fits
Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them.
worst fits
You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10).
(7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards.
Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well.
Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA.
All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on.
best fits
The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes.
worst fits
Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent.
(8) PG Killian Hayes, France
If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited.
Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall.
Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection.
best fits
Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well.
worst fits
Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer.
(9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison.
Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players.
Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player.
best fits
Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers.
worst fits
It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.)
(10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect.
Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes.
Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering.
best fits
In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.)
worst fits
I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16).
(11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings)
When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5??
But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively.
We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead.
best fits
While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love.
worst fits
If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s.
(12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings)
We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it.
Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year.
To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick.
best fits
While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves.
worst fits
With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base.
(13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona
As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race.
In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends.
best fits
As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5.
worst fits
I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode.
(14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford
Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry.
That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James).
And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range.
best fits
If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench.
worst fits
Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player.
(15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia
We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans.
But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside.
Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat.
All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security.
best fits
If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild.
worst fits
Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane.
I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
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[TheAthletic] How Christian Wood went from 15th man with Pistons to a face of the Rockets by Edwards III & Iko

In what now feels like a lifetime ago, there was a stretch of weeks in the not-so-distant past when Christian Wood was duking it out with 17-year veteran Joe Johnson for an NBA paycheck. Yes, that Christian Wood, the man who in a year went from a basketball couch surfer to one of the most intriguing and efficient big men in the NBA.
This offseason, months after becoming a recognizable name with the Pistons, Wood signed a three-year, $41 million contract with the Rockets. It’s a significant upgrade from being picked up off waivers by Detroit a year prior. For most of last season, there was a belief that when Wood officially became one of free agency’s marquee names that he’d re-sign with the Pistons, the franchise that provided him his first real opportunity and was pivoting toward a rebuild. Per sources, there was interest on both sides for most of the offseason.
In the NBA, though, things change quickly.
The decision to part ways has worked out so far for all parties involved. The Pistons instead used their cap space to gamble on Jerami Grant, a career side-kick forward who, with the role as top option in Detroit, has emerged as one of the league’s breakout candidates. And Wood has taken his success story from the Motor City and continued to add pages in Houston.
“It’s a journey,” Wood said during his introductory press conference as a member of the Rockets. “I wouldn’t put it on anybody. It’s a journey that I’ve learned a lot from to get to where I am now. And I wouldn’t ask for any other way, because I know it made me who I am now. It made me have this chip on my shoulder. It made me have this determination to try and be better than everybody I played against on the court.”
In July 2019, Wood signed a non-guaranteed contract with Detroit. After a short but productive stint with the New Orleans Pelicans, the Pistons’ decision-makers identified the then-24-year-old as someone who was worth taking a closer look at. After all, his abilities as a basketball player were always met with high regard. It was his immaturity and lack of professionalism upon entering the league that caused him to play in six NBA cities and China in less than five years.
Wood wasn’t always on time to practice. He didn’t always pay attention to detail. Professionalism, or lack-thereof, was going to be the reason the on-court production might not see the light of day.
“For me, I thought at a young age that my talent was going to take over,” Wood told The Athletic last season. “I thought I was more talented than everybody. It wasn’t that. I had to get the work aspect down. It wasn’t just about talent all of the time.”
After decisively beating out Johnson for the final 15-man roster spot, Wood started the season coming off the bench for Detroit but was one of the more efficient scorers in the league. His offensive rating of 110.9 was tied for second best on the roster, and his true shooting percentage of 66.2 was 13th in the NBA (min. 18 minutes per game and at least 20 games played) from the start of the regular season to the trade deadline.
At the Feb. 7 trade deadline, the Pistons, who had their playoff aspirations crushed by injuries to Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard, signaled for the first time that they were going to rebuild. The franchise traded cornerstone big man Andre Drummond to the Cavaliers for cap filler. This opened the door for Wood to take on a starting role to finish the season. Teams called Detroit about Wood at the deadline, per sources. His efficient scoring in a limited role intrigued other teams like it did the Pistons. The Celtics and Rockets were two of the teams that were in hot pursuit of Wood, per sources. Detroit, though, wanted to see if the big man could handle more responsibility before having to invest in the coming offseason.
Once Wood became a full-time starter, he took off. Now with a larger role, Wood continued to prove that he was one of the most diverse frontcourt talents in the NBA. From the day after the trade deadline to the moment the NBA was shut down in mid-March due to COVID-19, Wood averaged 22.8 points and 9.9 rebounds while shooting 40 percent from 3 and holding a true-shooting percentage of 65.3.
For a month and some change, Wood was the best player on an NBA team. And while Detroit was destined for a top-10 pick in the lottery, Wood showed that he could be the new franchise cornerstone as it moved in a different direction.
However, as the months passed and the league decided to restart in the Orlando bubble without the Pistons and seven other teams, Detroit made some organizational changes. In June, the Pistons hired Troy Weaver as its new general manager. Weaver spent the last decade as Sam Presti’s right-hand man in Oklahoma City. His vision for the early days of the rebuild was to create a defensive-minded roster equipped with length and versatility. During his early press conferences, Weaver told reporters that Wood was someone of interest for the organization. Detroit had roughly $30 million in cap space to use.
When free agency opened in late November, the Pistons shocked the basketball world by committing $60 million over three years to Grant. Detroit eventually executed a sign-and-trade with the Nuggets — Grant’s previous employer — to make the deal happen. Grant and Weaver have a relationship that goes back to Grant’s high school days in Maryland. Weaver believed that the 26-year-old was the ideal player for the type of roster that he wanted to construct. Additionally, Weaver thought Grant had the potential to be more than just a role player. In hindsight, Weaver’s evaluation and thought process has proved to be more than correct.
During this process, the Pistons also offered Wood a contract, per sources. Detroit wanted him to be part of this retooling, as well. However, there was a specific price in mind. Detroit had Wood’s “Early Bird” rights, which meant that if it were able to sign him to a deal that paid, roughly, $10 million annually, Wood’s salary would only count as $1.7 million against their cap. Anything more would count toward the cap in full. Per sources, Detroit didn’t offer more than the annual amount that it would take for the smallest cap hit. The priority for the Pistons under Weaver was to acquire Grant, who, especially defensively, fits more of the mold of what the revamped front office was looking for.
Wood and his reps then turned their attention elsewhere. The Rockets, who were now under new leadership but still interested in landing Wood’s services, stepped up to the plate. Houston and Detroit worked out a sign-and-trade that was highlighted by Wood going to the Rockets and the Pistons receiving the No. 16 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.
Last season, as much as Houston emphasized the need to go small for spacing and Russell Westbrook-related reasons, the internal plan was never to be exclusive. There was still a desire to add a skillful big man to the roster. The biggest benefit of small ball is the ability to play five out offensively and while that view has never departed, the Rockets believed that you didn’t need to be small to play that style — granted you have the personnel to do so.
After trading Clint Capela to Atlanta for Robert Covington before the trade deadline, Houston aggressively pursued expanding the deal to add another center in the league-allotted window, sources say. Wood was among the options the Rockets pursued, with the team offering Isaiah Hartenstein and two second-round picks to Detroit, sources say — which Detroit turned down.
When free agency rolled back around, Houston was determined to get the big man they had been keeping tabs on for five years. The coronavirus pandemic has changed a lot of in-person interactions — an underrated aspect of free agency — but that never deterred the Rockets from getting their message across. Internally, Houston saw Wood as the best offensive big man available during the offseason in part due to his versatility as a roller and floor spacer. With the direction the franchise was heading in — at least offensively — being able to do multiple things on the floor was seen as the best way to pressure opposing defenses. His potential and his successful stint post-trade deadline only increased his profile from a Rockets aggression standpoint.
At the beginning of free agency, Houston reached out to Wood and his representation and told him that getting a deal done was a priority. The majority of interactions took place via Zoom, phone calls and even FaceTime.
For Wood, the most important thing for him was talking to Rockets head coach Stephen Silas himself. The two had a relationship that dated back to their time together in Charlotte five years ago, but Wood was much more raw and younger then. Their early conversations centered on Wood’s development. Now, with both of their careers having seen tangible growth, it was a timeline come full circle.
“The old days were more about building habits and what it takes to be a consistent NBA player,” Silas said. “Less about the game and playing, more about the maturity it takes to be an NBA player. Now it’s more about the responsibility of being a starting center, a go-to guy, the anchor of our defense, and all of those things. It’s definitely shifted in a big way. It’s a credit to him because he’s grown in so many different ways to become the player that he is today, but also the professional that he is.”
Wood wanted to hear what Silas thought about the potential fit and what his offense would look like. Coming off the historic year Silas had as a member of the Dallas Mavericks’ staff during the 2019-20 season, Wood was intrigued with the thought of reuniting with Silas.
In those conversations, Silas detailed a plan for Wood in a role similar to Kristaps Porzingis’ in Dallas. There was enough of a sample for Silas to see that Wood could do similar things offensively to Porzingis. Like his Mavericks counterpart, Wood can play the power forward or center position, although he has played the latter for the bulk of his time in Houston this season. Both players are blessed with a unique blend of height, length, and on-court savvy. Porzingis is obviously the more polished and experienced player, but Wood has the capability of reaching that level.
Looking at their per-36 stats from the 2019-20 season, they were nearly identical to one another in most of the categories.

Player Season Points Rebounds Blocks 3P% 2PA
Christian Wood 2019-20 22 10.6 1.5 38.6 10
Kristaps Porzingis 2019-20 23.1 10.7 2.3 35.2 10.5
It’s still early in the year, but it’s been a successful start for Wood’s Rockets tenure, one that is more impressive given the wild and crazy start the team has had in 2020-21. He’s averaging All-Star numbers — 23.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game, shooting 36.2 percent from 3 on 4.8 attempts per. Wood is second in roll possession per game and leads all players in points, according to tracking data from NBA.com.
At the beginning of the season, Silas acknowledged that Wood’s defense would be a process. There were some early moments when Wood failed to assert himself in the middle of the floor and his teammates discussed the importance of him becoming a more vocal leader and an enforcer in the paint.
Since the James Harden trade, Wood’s usage has increased to 28.8, and his defensive rating has improved to a stingy 100.3. As Silas has diversified his schemes, Wood has been able to adjust accordingly. The most important part of his defense has been how he performs in Houston’s drop coverage, a tactic that has its benefits but is risky against elite shooters. Wood has to pick his battles, when to show and when to hang back. Where he has excelled as of late is using his length to contest and block shots.
Privately, Wood feels decent about his season so far but he knows there is still room for improvement. He’d like to get more consistent with his outside shooting, although it’s back up to around league average now, as well as get to the free-throw line.
One notable area of growth for Wood has been his confidence. It’s no surprise to see him make a defensive stop on one end, bring the ball down the floor in the same sequence and score.
“I learn every game,” Wood says. “I feel like I’m getting better every game, especially defensively. Coach has that trust in me to bring the ball up the floor and make plays for others and I trust him too. It’s mutual.”
Life for Wood is a bit different now having started the season with Harden and now playing with a Victor Oladipo-John Wall backcourt. But Wood’s determination and optimism has never waned, only increased. Against the Suns on Wednesday night, Wood sustained a right ankle injury and looked questionable to return for the second half. The team medics advised against Wood playing but he couldn’t leave his teammates on the floor so he returned, pain and all.
“I was hurting the whole second half,” Wood said after the game. “They told me actually not to go in and play but I felt like my team needed me. My team needed to win this game. So, I have to sacrifice for my team. Whether it’s my body or shots or points or anything like that, I feel like my team needs me on the floor. That’s one of the reasons I came back out for the second half.”
Wood is part of a team’s future. He’s one of the guys. Much of Houston’s success in the coming years will depend on his development and sustained play as a rising star in the NBA.
It’s a far cry from where Wood was just even a summer ago.
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Offseason Blueprint: The Detroit Pistons are an NBA basketball team. Hopefully, they can remind fans of that in the next few years.

The playoffs continue to rage on, but there are 26 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch the Conference Finals, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Detroit Pistons.
step one: weave a new narrative
Some teams are good, some teams are bad -- but almost all of them have a general direction. Are you a young team on the rise? Or a veteran team trying to squeeze out as many wins as possible?
Right now, the Detroit Pistons are in a wonky grey area. They're missing an identity. When they tried to make the playoffs, they were fairly mediocre (records of 37-45, 39-43, 41-41). When injuries hit this past season, they plummeted down to 20-46. While that generally suggests a young and rebuilding team, the roster doesn't reflect that yet. Their marquee players are Blake Griffin (age 31) and Derrick Rose (age 31.) They also have a veteran coach in Dwane Casey who's more accustomed to competing than rebuilding. All in all, they feel like a confused, forgotten franchise.
Fortunately, there's a new sheriff in town. The team hired a new GM in Troy Weaver, who had been Sam Presti's right-hand man in Oklahoma City. Weaver's been on the verge of a GM job for several years now, and his hire represents something of a coup for this embattled organization.
Going forward, the franchise needs to hold the keys over to Weaver and allow him free reign to do whatever he wants. Back in OKC, he had experience with a variety of makeups: with a rebuilding team, with a contending team, with a rebuilding-wait-whoops-we're-accidentally-pretty-darn-good team. It's up to him to look at this roster and this payroll and determine the best path forward from here.
step two: hold a garage sale for your old homeowner's property
Presumably, Troy Weaver will treat this project as more of a teardown than a remodel. Mainstay center Andre Drummond is already out of the door, and the other veterans may join him on the bus out of Detroit.
Unfortunately, that may be easier said than done. It makes a lot of sense to trade star PF Blake Griffin to a veteran team, but his injuries and his contract ($37M + $39M player option) would make that difficult from a logistical perspective.
There's a chance that a desperate team may be willing to roll the dice on Griffin. Throughout his career, he's been one of the more misunderstood players in the league. People want to treat him as an athlete-dunker only, but he's actually a skilled ballhandler and passer. In his last healthy season in 2018-19, he averaged 24.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and even showcased an improved three-point shot (36.2% on 7.0 attempts per game.) If healthy, he'd be a major difference maker to a team like Portland.
Still, teams aren't going to give up major assets for Blake Griffin until he proves that he is healthy. From Detroit's perspective, it makes more sense to wait to trade him. They need him to come back, put up some good stats, and then float him in offers. Right now, you'd be trading Griffin for 20 cents on the dollar.
In contrast, Derrick Rose's stock may be at a high. He put up good raw numbers this year (18.1 points, 5.6 assists), and he's on a reasonable $7.5M expiring contract. He'd be a positive addition to a playoff team, best served as a Sixth Man scorer. The Pistons and their fans like Rose (and he likes playing here), but it'd be irresponsible for them to not consider trade options. If they get any decent offers, they have to pull the trigger. If the offers are weak -- R2 picks or so -- then the team can keep him around as a veteran leader and placeholder starter.
step three: don't let your breakout break out
As bad as the Pistons were, they had a few bright spots. Derrick Rose played better than expected. Luke Kennard looks on track to be a rising starter. And, most surprising of all, rando Christian Wood broke out as a legitimate NBA player. As a starter, Wood averaged 21.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Wood is a springy, energetic player who also has an improving range (40% from three as a starter.)
You can read a longer deep dive about Christian Wood here, but to sum it up. A) His production looks legitimate, as he's been putting up numbers in virtually every stop as a pro. But B) His breakout may be poorly timed for the Pistons, because he's slated for free agency and about to get more expensive. He's a 24 year old whose best days should be ahead of him.
Based purely on his stats and scouting profile, you could talk yourself into a contract closing in on $15M a year for Wood. However, players with his "pedigree" (undrafted, limited sample size) rarely get that type of contract right away. To me, paying him somewhere in the range of 3 years, $36M would be a fair deal on both sides. There's too much uncertainty to justify much more of a commitment.
Of course, the Pistons should know better than any of us whether to trust Wood. Prior to this year, he had a mixed reputation in terms of his basketball IQ and work habits. If Coach Casey can sign off on Wood's character, then the team can feel more comfortable with him as a building block. If there are still red flags, perhaps it's better not to get too attached. The Pistons have more cap room than most teams this offseason, so the money shouldn't be a major deterrent to this decision. It should be entirely about Wood as a person and a player. If you believe that he's the real deal, then you keep him around.
step four: find your next field general
Christian Wood is a solid young player -- Luke Kennard is a solid young player -- but these aren't franchise players. They're secondary scorers and members of a supporting cast. To truly advance to the promised land, the Detroit Pistons are going to need to find transcendent talent, somehow and some way.
Unfortunately, the NBA Draft Lottery didn't help. The Pistons slipped down from the # 5 slot to the # 7 pick, making it unlikely that they'll land a future star.
On the bright side, the "supply and demand" may be on their side. This draft class happens to be heavy with point guards. There's LaMelo Ball (the # 1 prospect on ESPN), Killian Hayes (the # 1 prospect on The Ringer), and Tyrese Haliburton (one of the safer picks in the class.) If any of them slip down to # 7, the Pistons should strongly consider them. It usually takes a point guard a year or two to find their footing, but they can sit behind Derrick Rose for a year and then get unleashed in 2021. From a personality standpoint, Rose isn't going to mentor and educate like Aristotle, but he's capable of soaking up 25 minutes and allowing the next PG some time to develop.
If those top guards are not available (and they are unlikely to be), the Pistons may have to take some chances. One name I'm intrigued by is R.J. Hampton.
On face value, that'd be a "reach." Like LaMelo Ball, Hampton was a top high school prospect who went off to play in the Australian league. Unlike Ball, his NBA stock suffered as a result. While Ball put up numbers (17-8-7), Hampton put up weak stats -- 8.8 points, 2.4 assists on 41-30-68 shooting splits. As a result, Ball is now locked into top 3 pick status, and Hampton is seeing his name ranked around the 10-20 range in mock drafts.
However, I'd defend Hampton to some degree. We have to consider the context here. LaMelo Ball joined a struggling team called Illawarra. With Ball, the team went 3-9 (and finished 5-23.) When you're playing on a bad team like that, you can be the "star" and jack up as many shots as you want. In contrast, Hampton joined the New Zealand Breakers, a better team that relegated him to 20.6 minutes a night and a more limited role. His raw stats may not do him justice.
No doubt, Hampton has a long way to go, especially as a shooter. At the same time, he's a big lead guard (6'4" with a 6'7" wingspan) who flashes a lot of explosive scoring ability when he's getting downhill to the hoop. He's also a smart kid and allegedly a good worker. There's some legitimate "star" potential here, even if it's a narrow bull's eye. Hampton doesn't have the same athleticism as Russell Westbrook (hardly anyone does) but maybe there's a parallel here. After all, Weaver and OKC selected Westbrook after he'd been a little under the radar after playing off the ball at UCLA.
To be clear, I'm not urging Detroit to take R.J. Hampton at # 7. I'm not endorsing him as a future star like Westbrook. I don't know enough to do that; I don't sit around and splice up tape of New Zealand basketball. Still, the point is, the Pistons should be looking at upside players in that vein, knowing that they're going to need to hit a home run in the future.
step five: keep one hand on the detonator
The Detroit Pistons only have $68M committed on the books for next season, which means they could be players in free agency even if they re-sign Christian Wood.
If the team decided to go "all in" in a desperate attempt to compete, then you could maybe talk yourself into retaining Blake Griffin, handing out a big contract for Fred VanVleet, and shooting for the playoffs. That may work. But to what end...? The 7th seed? The 8th seed? Is that the end goal here?
More realistically, the team should (as discussed) try to get Blake Griffin back and fully healthy in order to showcase him for a trade. After that, they'd then dive into a full rebuild.
Presuming that's going to be the ultimate destination, then the Pistons may as well get a jump on that with free agency. With their remaining cap space, they can take on a toxic asset that comes attached with future picks, or take some fliers on young and promising players. Among my favorite gamblers of this offseason may include PG Kris Dunn (CHI), SG Denzel Valentine (CHI), SF Josh Jackson (MEM), and C Harry Giles (SAC.) None of them should draw huge money offers, making them reasonable purchases and lottery tickets.
If the Pistons end up blowing it up, then they should play their younger players over the course of the season. That should mean a lot of Sekou Doumbouya (entering Year 2) and even some Thon Maker (entering Year 42). If that means you only win 25-30 games, that's all right. It'll only help your odds for next year's lottery.
I've mentioned this before with some potential tankers (CLE, CHA, etc), but next year's draft could be quite strong. The group is headlined by point forward Cade Cunningham (heading to Oklahoma State) and scoring swingman Jalen Green (heading to the G-League), but there are about 4-5 other players who have the potential to join the # 1 pick conversation in time. The Detroit Pistons aren't likely to be bad enough to get a top 3 pick on their own, but the flattened lottery odds make it possible for the 7th or 8th worst team to leapfrog into that territory.
Of course, before Weaver and the Pistons officially press the detonator and go into full-blown rebuild/tank mode, they need to have a heart to heart with Coach Casey. He's 63 years old already, and entering the third year of a five-year deal. Is he going to embrace the rebuild? Is he going to be the scapegoat if they rack up losses? They need to get on the same page, out of fairness to Casey and out of fairness to this franchise. A reasonable solution would be to promise Casey that, if he does tank like a good soldier, he'll still be retained for next season. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither will chrome.
previous offseason blueprints
ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, IND, GS, LAC, MIL, MIN, NYK, POR, SA, SAC, UTA
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Offseason Blueprint: if the Boston Celtics turn their Big Hero 6 into the Magnificent Seven, they may be in the Finals themselves next year

The NBA Finals are underway, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch LeBron, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Boston Celtics.
step one: don't flush money down the toilet
This is a difficult entry to write, because the Boston Celtics are a good team without any major problems hanging over their head. They were top 5 in W-L record, top 5 in point differential. They finished 4th in offense, 4th in defense. They advanced to the Conference Finals, knocking off a tough Toronto team along the way. If they rolled it back next season, they should be considered a top 5 team once again.
If you can nitpick, you can find reasons to quibble with some of their big splash free agency signings. Gordon Hayward got a huge contract and didn't sustain his All-Star level (for reasons out of his control.) Last offseason, the team gave out another huge contract to Kemba Walker ($32M + $34M + $36M + $38M player option), and they may be regretting that now. Walker never looked at 100% health and he got picked on some defensively in the playoffs. The idea of paying him that kind of money for three more seasons may be a little scary.
Of course, there's no use crying over spilled milk. Gordon Hayward will likely "opt in" to his $34M player option. Is that an overpay? Sure. Still, Hayward is still a solid starter with a balanced skill set. With another year removed from that injury, he may take another step up.
As for Walker, the hope is that he'll do the same with an offseason to recover and another year in the system. It can't be easy to go from the star of a franchise to the 2nd or 3rd option. In fact, most of Walker's offensive decline can be chalked up to a reduced role. His PPG dropped from 25.6 to 20.4, but that comes after his minutes dropped by 3.8 and his field goal attempts dropped by 4.4 per game. In terms of his efficiency, there wasn't a big difference. He actually scored a higher true shooting percentage (up from 56% to 58%). His offensive box plus/minus stayed near the same at + 4.9, which ranked as the highest on Boston's team.
Walker didn't look great in the bubble, but I'm going to chalk that up to some lingering injuries. He's still only 30 years old, so he hasn't gotten materially worse in a year. Will he get much worse by age 32? At 33? That's possible. But again, the Celtics have already committed to that. They can try to float trade packages for Walker to get off that contract, but I don't see teams beating down their door for it. If a team like the Knicks wants Walker, they may not offer anything back in return (aside from their willingness to take the contract.) Given Boston's situation as a team on the verge of the Finals, it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a step back like that just for cap relief.
step two: promote a temp to a full time desk
The Boston Celtics have a very strong "top six." You have the two rising stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. You have the two veterans in Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward. You have the super role players in Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. After that, it's more of a grab bag. No other player on the team averaged more than 20 minutes a night in the regular season, and no other player averaged more than 18 minutes a night in the postseason.
A team can make a deep run in the playoffs by going six strong, but it makes the margin of error narrower. When one of those players gets hurt -- like Gordon Hayward did this postseason -- it strains your depth. Beyond that, having an extra member of the full-time cast allows your players to take nights off and manage their minutes in anticipation of that deep playoff run. Hayward and Walker are both 30 now, so it's going to be important to keep them fresh.
Effectively, we want to take this "top six" and make it a "top seven." (Hence the post title.)
The top candidate for a promotion would be rookie PF Grant Williams. To me, Williams has more offensive potential than fellow forward Semi Ojeleye. After three good years at Tennessee, Williams dropped to # 22 in the draft based on the perception that he was more of a "college player" who couldn't keep up with NBA athletes. That didn't look to be the case so far for Williams (or for Cam Johnson in Phoenix, by the by.) Williams is a high-IQ player who can potentially play several different positions. He needs to keep increasing his range (25% from three), but he's been working toward that over his career. If he can take a leap next year, that'd be a major boon for the Celtics.
Fellow rookies Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards may be slightly behind on the development curve, but it'd be great if they could get on the track toward the rotation eventually. Langford projects as a quality scorer who could potentially replace Gordon Hayward in the lineup in 1-2 years. Meanwhile, Edwards was a major shot maker in college who still has a lot of work to do. It may be too optimistic to think he could be a starter one day, but perhaps he could take the reserve role from Brad Wanamaker (a free agent.) If not, Tremont Waters (another rookie) may try to vie for that spot himself. It's not exactly Game of Thrones, but it's Game of Bench Seats. If nothing are ready for 15 or so minutes, then the team may need to re-sign Wanamaker or another filler vet.
In an ideal world, the Celtics would have faith that Robert Williams would be ready for an elevated role himself. They may lean more toward smallball bigs, but it's nice to have the option of a more traditional big at center as well. Enes Kanter has a player option for $5M that he may take -- he may not. He may try to finagle a longer-term deal somewhere. But if the team trusts the Time Lord, they can negotiate from a position of strength on that front.
No matter what happens, the Celtics will likely need their "7th man" to come from within. They have $120M committed on the cap for next season, so they're going to need to rely on internal improvements.
step three: bundle like the Big Short
If you thought the Boston Celtics had a lot of prospects in their "farm system" already, just wait. In this upcoming draft, they'll have pick # 14. And pick # 26. And pick # 30. And pick # 47.
Danny Ainge has always valued the draft and having a lot of picks, but we don't need this many. After all, we're trying to win the NBA title, not the G-League title.
The most obvious tactic would be bundling up these assets and trying to upgrade somehow. Like in The Big Short, perhaps a bunch of low-end assets can equal something of value. Still, the Celtics and their fans need to be reasonable here. They've tried bundling up lower draft picks in order to move for a while now, and always seem surprised when teams reject it (thinking of the potential Justise Winslow trade-up, primarily.) The truth is, these mid-to-late R1 picks aren't as valuable as many people seem to think. If the team packages all four of those picks together (14, 26, 30, 47) in order to move up, they may only land around pick # 9 or so. This isn't the NFL; NBA teams tend to value quality over quantity in the draft.
For a team that's already pretty strong and balanced, there may be a tendency to keep all their picks and just swing for a home run or two. The trouble is: there's only so much room on the roster. Consolidating (or pushing some of those picks back to future drafts) may be necessary.
If the Celtics can't move up and stay at # 14, they should have the option of getting another solid prospect. Some that may be intriguing to me personally would be Arizona SG/SF Josh Green ("Green"? karmic!), Villanova SF Saddiq Bey, or Maryland PF Jalen Smith. All three are quality prospects that project as rotational players in a year or two. A bigger home run swing may be Aleksej Pokusevski, the skilled 7'0" stretch big from Serbia. Pokusevski's narrow frame would make me nervous to bet on him if I was a GM on the ropes who needed to hit on my pick, but the Celtics have more freedom than that. They can take some chances if they want. Other upside plays would include PG/SG R.J. Hampton (U.S./New Zealand) and SF Jaden McDaniels (Washington).
With the # 26 pick, the Celtics could also get a decent prospect as well. You can never go wrong with a traditional 3+D prospect like SF Robert Woodard (Mississippi State). I also wouldn't rule out taking a traditional big like Vernon Carey (Duke). No one wants traditional scoring bigs anymore, but that's the reason that a player like that (who averaged 18-9 as a freshman) would slip down to # 24. In another era, the kid may be a top 10 pick. At the very least, he could replace the Enes Kanter role as a scoring sub.
step four: keep on truckin'
Hmm. Usually these offseason blueprints have 4 or 5 steps, but I'm running out of ideas here. As mentioned, things are running pretty smoothly for this franchise. I don't think Danny Ainge needs much help from reddit right now.
Still, I'll throw in some minor little notes that don't even merit a full section.
WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU? The Celtics have a lot of shot makers, but sometimes their offense can stall and fall into iso or hero ball. They need to keep pushing forward with ball movement and set plays if need be. One stat I noticed: Jaylen Brown is an exceptional shooter from the corner. He's at 43% from his career, and that swelled to 48% this season. Running action to get him more of those shots would be helpful.
REUNITE GERMANY. The team has a $5M option on center Daniel Theis that they'll definitely pick up. After that, Theis will be an unrestricted free agent. If I ran the team, I'd start talking to Theis about an extension. There may be a perception that the team can play any smallball center and save some money at the position, but I'd disagree. Theis is an underrated player that fits the modern NBA well. There may be a matchup here and there where he struggles, but overall he's a good starter and may need to be paid like one. He's still a little "under the radar," so perhaps they can get a team-friendly deal if they extend him now.
KEEP YOUR COACHING DEPTH STRONG. Celtics assistant coach Jay Larranaga is one of the better lieutenants in the game. He had been floated for some head coaching jobs in the past, but seems to have been lost in the shadows with all the major movement on the sidelines this year. Hopefully, for Boston's sake, Larranaga doesn't feel discouraged by that and doesn't start looking for head coaching opportunities elsewhere. His father is a good college coach, and he may decide to go that NCAA route eventually himself. The team should keep him well compensated so he doesn't feel the need to do that.
Overall, we're talking minor tweaks for this next season. The Celtics' chances of winning a title will hinge on how much they can improve -- both from their young stars and from their young bench.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
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Around the Alliance 02.21 - OWNERS MEETINGS AND CONSPIRACY THEORIES

In this edition of Around the Alliance we'll be delving into the outcomes from the 2021 Owners Meetings, forecasting what players may be looking to sign extensions in the coming weeks, and taking a trip with Spooky Mulder into some UFFA conspiracy theories!

2021 OWNERS MEETINGS

The 2021 Owners Meetings were raucous and active this year, with the addition of two voices speaking on behalf of Albuquerque and Hawaii (their last act as expansion franchises). The agenda was robust, and yet in the face of an opening resolution to allow the discussions to spill into February matters were settled in two weeks.
The agenda was broken down into matters related to Rosters, Contracts, and General. Proposals were met with either approval, denial, no decision, or withdrawn. Below is a summary and implications of the matters settled.
ROSTER ITEMS
CONTRACT ITEMS
GENERAL BUSINESS ITEMS

EXTENDED FORECAST

ALBUQUERQUE
The Roadrunners took flight in 2020 with a surprising 5th place finish. The team is still very much in the building phase, however, with plans culminating in the 2022 rookie draft following the team's stadium completion. Yet there are some key pieces the front office is likely to give an offer sheet to.
ALASKA
Alaska is coming off a disappoint end to 2020 to say the least. The team is still well built for a run in the coming years thanks to a strong starting roster, so extensions will be shoring up the bench depth.
DUNEDIN
Betting heavily on cheap, young contracts, the Rangers have little to worry about in their RFA class.
HAWAII
2020 was a tough year for the expansion team, but they knew it would be a hard road in the Exterior Division. While they look to young stars to rise up, the team is still likely to target some veteran presence.
LINCOLN
The "soft rebuild" is in full swing. The RFAs on the roster are likely to be a big indicator of how comfortable Lincoln feels with their reboot and rebranding as the Johnsons.
NORTHWOODS
The stars aligned against the Hoes in 2020, but no one believes they'll be down for long. The roster is still solid and locked up under contract for the most part. What few RFA decisions the team has to make will likely effect the depth of the bench more than anything else.
OKLAHOMA CITY
With the Interior seeming to be leveling, the Storm will have to stay aggressive if they're going to fight up the upstart teams around them.
SAN JUAN
Coming off the Cario Cup II victory, the Shrimp will be tempted to keep the band together as much as possible, and who can blame them! If somethings not broke, don't fix it!
ST. LOUIS
The feel good story of 2020 (maybe the only), the Clydes look to be ahead of schedule on their rebuild given their 4th place finish in the postseason. Don't expect them to go upending any apple carts!
SWANSEA CITY
Devastated by the loss of keystones Barkley and Chubb, the Ducks are at the dawn of a retooling up and down the roster.

UFFA CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Put on your tinfoil hats and fire up your VPN, because THEY are listening.
  1. EXPANSION BETRAYAL, HAWAII TAINTS FULLER DRUG TEST! - In a bit of fury over the Roadrunner's second half of the season surge towards the playoffs, an anonymous source has told AtA that the Pacific arch-rival slipped PEDs into Fuller's Gatorade after the week 12 game. While some may point to Fuller's lack of appeal or denial as a sign of guilt, it only confirms that the Volcanoes got to him (and his family?!) first with intimidation tactics that we can only presume involved Nickleback's Spotify channel.
  2. "GM REYNOLDS" IS ALGORITHM DECIDING HUMANITY'S FATE! - Have you ever wondered to yourself, "how is GM Reynolds of OKC able to hold a fulltime job, multiple team managements, and the UFFA communications and secretary position?" The truth will shock you! GM Reynolds can do these things because "he" is actually a computer algorithm designed to weed out the weakness of mankind before ultimately eliminating us all!
  3. JUSTIN HERBERT, OTHERS SLEEPER AGENTS PROGRAMED BY ANDREW LUCK! - You know where you were when Andrew Luck "retired". It was a shockwave through the Alliance. But was it really so he could have more "family time"? AtA research team has confirmed that Andrew Luck graduated from certified smart-person school, Stanford University, with a big brain GPA of 3.48 as an engineer of Architectural Design. What better use of his engineering skills than to be the architect who is designing the next wave of football related espionage. Now think of all the eyebrow raising trades St. Louis has made since Luck's retirement PROMOTION: Dalvin Cook... Darren Waller... Justin Herbert... Trevor Lawrence (via 1.01)... Are these real people or AUTOMATONS designed by Mr. Luck for the nefarious purpose of causing the collective downfall of the UFFA?
  4. DUCKS, HOES FROM FUTURE TO STEAL 2021 DRAFT! - How interesting that two teams, both picked as playoff contenders in the preseason, managed to acquire 3 of the top 4 picks in this summer's rookie draft. Doesn't it make more sense for these teams to be using information from the future and capitalizing on what they know will be slam dunk draft picks? THERE'S PRECEDENT! Look at Lincoln's 2019 draft class: Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, AJ Dillon, Adam Trautman, Anthony McFarland, and Gabe Davis... outside of McFarland, those are FIVE starters including two THIRD ROUND picks and the PRE-PENULTIMATE PLAYER TAKEN IN THE WHOLE DRAFT! TIME TRAVEL!!
  5. TRENDS CONFIRM UFFA IS ONLY A SIMULATION! - Whatever you think you know about the Alliance is a LIE! There is no UFFA or St Louis Clydesdales or Cario Cup! Has anyone ever seen a picture of El Crushsatcion? Can anyone confirm if the Cup is gold or silver?? How come there's programmatic-like trends, like how the 3rd seed wins the title, Alaska has the best regular season record, the 3rd place game always features the performance of the season, and GM Koch never letting autocorrect help his Discord posts?!?!? WAKE UP SHEEPEOPLE!!! NONE OF THIS IS REAL!!
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Offseason Blueprint: the Charlotte Hornets don't need to blow it up, because the foundation is mostly rubble already

All across the NBA landscape, there's only one thing on people's mind: What are the Charlotte Hornets going to do this offseason??
Kidding, of course. However, the boycott/strike left us with no games today, and perhaps the chance to sneak in the second edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series.
Here's a rundown and list of recommendations for the team this offseason.
step one: don't let your (semi) success get to your head
Coming into this season, expectations for the Charlotte Hornets were lower than a limbo bar. Kemba Walker had exited for greener pastures, and the team became a punchline when they ponied up $19M a year for Terry Rozier to replace him. Vegas set their oveunder at 23.5 wins, the lowest in the entire league.
Based on those expectations, coach James Borrego and the team massively overachieved early on in the year. They jumped out of the gates at 13-17, fueled by hot shooting from breakout Devonte' Graham. Eventually, Graham cooled off and the team did as well. Still, they'd end the year at a semi-respectable 23-42, nearly beating that preseason "over" despite a 65-game schedule.
If you're an optimist, you could say that this team isn't too far away from the playoffs. After all, Orlando grabbed the # 8 seed with a 33-40 record. Perhaps if the Hornets made a few tweaks here and there, they could get up to that 35-win range next year and contend for the 8th seed themselves.
Alas, I am no optimist. At least, not when it comes to these Charlotte Hornets. The team got off to a solid start, but all other metrics indicate a team that is B-A-D. Their point differential of -6.7 indicates a team that's even worse than their 23-42 record. In fact, that -6.7 is the 4th worst in the league. Their offense came in at 29th overall (out of 30). Even feel-good stories like Devonte' Graham didn't last forever. His shooting slowed down to the point where he finished the year with a below-average 53.7% true shooting percentage.
By any reasonable assessment, this team is a loooonggg way away from making the playoffs, and even further away from contending in a R1 series. Going into this offseason, the front office and ownership needs to realize that, and adjust their strategy accordingly.
step two: ignore your stars, and shoot for the moon instead
Let's ignore the astronomical problems with that statement and consider the subtext instead.
Perhaps more than any team in the NBA, the Charlotte Hornets need a marquee player. That goes for this roster, but also this franchise's player in history. Charlotte first got an expansion team in 1988 (as the "Hornets") and then again in 2004 (as the "Bobcats" to start.) If we include ALL of that history, dating back 30 seasons, the players with the most total win shares for the franchise are 1) Kemba Walker, 2) Gerald Wallace, and 3) Muggsy Bogues. Those are all good players, but not the type of superstar that'd inspire you to build a statue outside the stadium.
Fortunately, the basketball gods finally smiled upon them and landed them the # 3 pick this year. It's going to be a weak draft, but this will still be the team's best chance to land a superstar since they selected Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (over Bradley Beal) at # 2 back in 2012. Given this opportunity, and given their needs, the Hornets need to aim high here. Shoot for the moon. And in the process, they have to ignore their current roster completely. Top scorers Devonte' Graham and Terry Rozier are OK, but they're not the caliber of player that should force you to adjust your big board at all. The mandate should be simple: best. available. player. Guard, forward, center, it shouldn't matter. We need Michael Jordan to hit a home run here, although we know it's not his specialty.
I don't anticipate that Georgia SG Anthony Edwards will be available, but if he is, then the team should be excited to nab him. Edwards didn't shoot well as a freshman (40% from the field, 29% from three), but he's got the tools to be a potential All-Star. He's long (6'9" wingspan), strong, and hard to guard when he's attacking. I also like the idea of MJ mentoring Edwards and pushing him to get the most out of his talent. If he taps into his potential, we're talking about a Donovan Mitchell-esque player here.
A more polarizing selection that I'd still endorse would be Memphis C James Wiseman. I can understand the criticism against him. He can be passive at times. Perhaps he'll never be an elite scorer or even an All-Star. Still, I like Wiseman for a few reasons. He's 7'1" with a 7'5" wingspan, which should help make him an anchor on defense. He's also a smart kid (based on media interviews). Coach James Borrego came from the Spurs organization, which built around bigs like David Robinson and Tim Duncan originally. Perhaps he'd be more inclined to invest in a big man than other young coaches would. And while I cautioned against factoring in "fit," Wiseman and P.J. Washington would make for great complementary building blocks at the 4 and 5.
Personally, I'm mixed on the 3rd spot (which is where they land, unfortunately.) Draft Express lists PG LaMelo Ball as their # 1 prospect, while The Ringer has French PG Killian Hayes at the top of their board. Both have good size for the position, good passing instincts, and good experience overseas. I don't love the shooting of either one myself and worry about some possible inefficiency, but the Hornets would judge for themselves and select one if they're totally on board. Having two scoring guards like Graham and Rozier shouldn't factor into the equation.
Other names they should consider include PF/C Onyeka Okongwu (USC) and SF/PF Deni Avdija (Israel). I like a few other prospects in the class, but none of them would merit top 3 status. If I ran Charlotte, I wouldn't try to get cute about trade-ups or trade-downs either. The lottery was generous to you, so let's not look a gift horse in the mouth.
step three: don't be a waste of space
The Charlotte Hornets already have $79M committed in salary for next season, which sounds like "a lot" until you consider it's the third least in the NBA (behind Atlanta and Detroit.) Most teams are already booked up, with twenty different teams already having $100M on the docket.
With a little wiggle room (say $20M or so), the Hornets could potentially be players in free agency. This is not a strong free agency class, and the top names (like Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram) probably won't come calling.
Still, there are a few young veterans that may be worth pursuing. Sacramento SF Bogdan Bogdanovic is coming off a season where he averaged 18-4-4 per 36 minutes, and may have even more in the tank if he became more of a featured option. At 28 years old, he's probably in his prime already, but his skill set should age fairly well and he should maintain his value over the next 2-3 years. I also like Spurs' C Jakob Poeltl, a 24-year-old big man who's shown well in his limited playing time. He could potentially become a long-term starter on the right team. Sacramento C Harry Giles could also be a good flier.
Outside of a few select picks, the Hornets shouldn't force the issue and throw their money around willy-nilly (like they may have with Terry Rozier.) Someone needs to block DeMar DeRozan's number on Michael Jordan's phone.
That said, they can still use that cap space effectively. If we presume the Hornets aren't making the playoffs anyway, they may as well take a "toxic asset" off another team's hands, a la Sean Marks' Brooklyn Nets. Options could include Gorgui Dieng ($17M), James Johnson ($16M), Thaddeus Young ($13M + $14M), or Al-Farouq Aminu ($9M + $10M). If a team is willing to throw you a bone in terms of draft picks to take them off your hands, you may as well put the cap space to good use.
step four: hold your breath, and prepare to drown
Clearly, we haven't painted a rosy picture here. The team is unlikely to add top talent through free agency or trade, and even that top 3 lottery pick won't be a great player out of the gate. All in all, this is a bottom 10 team that will likely stay in the bottom 10 next year no matter how hard they try and fight it.
So if you're already sinking... why not drown completely? Yes, friends, we're talking about a full blown tank.
If the Hornets see the writing on the wall early next year, they need to commit fully and aggressively to a tank in 2020-21. I wouldn't normally recommend that tactic in today's day and age given the new flattened lottery odds, but this may be a "perfect storm" of events. The top 3 is ripe for the picking. Golden State won't be 15-50 next year. Minnesota (19-45) and Atlanta (20-47) should be better as well. The biggest threats would be Detroit (20-46) and the N.Y. Knicks (21-45), but both have older coaches that may not be keen on throwing a year of their coaching lives out the window.
Tanking makes logical sense for Charlotte, but they need some buy-in from the organization first. We'd have to convince Michael Jordan and the ownership group that it's in the team's long-term interest. They seem committed to "compete," but squeaking out a bunch of 30-win seasons over the next few years may be a great way to lose the entire franchise to relocation. Taking a short-term fall could land a star, and lead to a brighter future down the road.
We'd also need the ownership to give the greenlight to the front office and coaching staff as well. James Borrego will be entering Year 3 with the team, and will be nervous about his job security. Mitch Kupchak will be as well in the front office. For them to embrace a tank, they'd need some assurance that they're in this for the long haul. Personally, I like Borrego as a coach, so I'd try my best to commit to him and this long-term plan.
If the team can get on the same page and follow through, then there may be gold at the end of the rainbow. Next year's class appears (at the moment, anyway) to be a strong group, highlighted by playmaking wing Cade Cunningham (heading to Oklahoma State) and scoring guard Jalen Green (heading to the G-League.) PF Evan Mobley (USC), SF Jalen Johnson (Duke), and SF Ziaire Williaims (Stanford) also have the potential to join the # 1 pick conversation in time. And while those flattened odds make it difficult to ensure the # 1 pick, grabbing the # 1 spot means that you can only drop as low as # 5. That 5th pick next year may be even better than the # 3 this season.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, BOS, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
submitted by ZandrickEllison to nba [link] [comments]

Offseason Blueprint: it’s time for the young/Young Atlanta Hawks to leave the nest and take flight

The playoffs continue to rage on, but there are 26 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, have nightmares about getting blocked by Bam, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Atlanta Hawks.
step one: grow up and play D, because you can’t be forever young
Two summers ago, the Atlanta Hawks hired coach Lloyd Pierce on the basis of his defensive reputation. So far, that hasn't translated to the court. Last season, the Hawks ranked 27th in defensive rating. After a year in the system to improve their habits and chemistry, that ranking jumped all the way up to... 27th.
What's wrong here? A few factors, of course.
The one that gets the most attention and the most blame would be the deficiencies of Trae Young. His lack of length and athleticism will always be a problem, but it shouldn't be this bad. ESPN RPM ranks his defensive impact as a -6.2 per 100 possessions, which ranks 520th out of all 520 qualifiers in the NBA. According to that metric, his defense is even worse than Isaiah Thomas (at age 31.)
Isaiah Thomas may be a helpful comparison though, because he does illustrate that one bad defender shouldn't be able to sink a team on his own. In IT's great season in Boston, his individual defense was poor, but the Celtics ranked in the top 5 in defense overall. Clearly, some teams are able to overcome liabilities like that. The Hawks may have to consider hiding Trae Young on defense like he's in the witness protection program. Other lead guards like Allen Iverson defended off the ball often, which is an approach that worked for his team defenses in Philadelphia and Denver.
So what else is wrong here? The second major factor would be a matter of youth. Yes, we have a "Young" and a "young" problem here. Inexperienced players tend to be bad defensively, and the Hawks were one of the youngest teams in the league. Their top 5 players in minutes played (Young, De'Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, John Collins) were all in their age-22 season or younger. There are some college rosters older than that starting five. That aspect should improve in time, especially because some of those young players like Hunter and Reddish project as good defenders.
Although it may sound counterintuitive, another issue with the defense is the offense. The Hawks play fast (top 5 in the NBA in pace), and shoot a bunch of threes (top 10 in three point attempts.) The problem is: they don't make a lot of those threes. As a team, the Hawks shot 33.3% from three, dead last in the NBA. These issues naturally affect their defense. The Hawks are playing fast and missing threes, which tends to lead to transition baskets for their opponents before the Hawks can get back and get set. If the Hawks improve their offense, then their defense should improve by proxy. To do that, they may have to slow down their pace to some degree. Modern teams love to run and gun, but if you're not very good, you're only giving your opponents extra possessions to allow their talent to win out.
The fourth potential issue is a matter of coaching. As mentioned, Lloyd Pierce had a good reputation as an assistant coming over to Atlanta, but we haven't seen that manifest so far. It's a tough job assignment coaching up a young team, but it's a talented group of players. If we don't see tangible improvement in Year 3, then I would presume it's time to fire Pierce and look for another answer. There are a lot of good coaches on the market right now, so Pierce needs to step up his game to avoid getting replaced. Rebuilding teams can afford to be patient, but they can't afford to give their coaches tenure.
step two: use it before you lose it
The 2020 free agent market is going to be quieter than an indoor mall during COVID quarantine. Hardly any teams have cap space... except for Atlanta. In fact, the Hawks have the most cap space in the entire NBA, committed to only $58M on the books for next year.
This is going to be a bad free agent class, but that's okay. In a sense, the Hawks are like the best looking guy in a dive bar. There may be slim pickings, but at least he gets his pick of the litter.
You don't want to throw your money away foolishly, but you don't want it to burn a hole in your pocket either. Eventually that cap space is going to dry up when you extend your young players, so this may be a great opportunity to "use it before you lose it."
The first option should be to throw a big offer at restricted free agent Brandon Ingram. Ingram has great length for a wing player, and his scoring prowess would make for a -- wait, what was that? The Pelicans just matched my offer in mid sentence? Okay then, let's move on to our next options.
I'd also consider making sizable offers to free agents Bogdan Bogdanovic and/or Jerami Grant. Bogdanovic is a skilled scorer who averaged 18-4-4 per 36 this past season, and has the potential to thrive as a secondary scorer or 6th man. At 27, he also fits the general timeline here. While Bogdanovic may not be the defensive stopper we're looking for, you can never have too many quality wings in today's NBA.
Jerami Grant doesn't have the same shooting ability or skill set, but he's an energetic player and an impact defender. He's 26 now, and should retain his value for the next 3 years. Having Grant as a complementary starter or rotation player would help the team on and off the court; from what I understand, he's a hard worker and a team-first player.
On the lower end, it wouldn't be a terrible idea to punch some lottery tickets and hope they pay off. Josh Jackson (former Suns bust) still has potential at age 23. Chicago SG/SF Denzel Valentine has an intriguing skill set. And fellow Bull Kris Dunn is one of the premier defenders at his position. Dunn would make for a great yin/yang backup to Trae Young.
step three: have some faith in John the Baptist
One of the reasons that the Atlanta Hawks' cap size will dwindle in the future is the potential extension for PF John Collins.
A year or two ago, the team may have thought long and hard about whether or not to commit huge money to Collins. There were some indications that he was a "good stats / bad team" kind of player. He was a tweener who struggled on defense, and didn't stretch the floor reliably on offense.
These days, it's harder to hate on Collins. The raw stats are as good as always (20-10 this year), but he's also playing a more desirable brand of basketball as well. He's worked to improve his range and shotmaking. His three-point shooting went up to 35% in year two, and swelled to 40% in year three. His FT% has also gone up each year, from 72% to 76% to 80%. You appreciate when a young player improves his game, as it indicates a lot more potential still in the tank (as he turns 23 next week.)
Defense is becoming less of a concern for Collins as well. The trend towards smallball allows him to play about 50% of his minutes at center. In turn, that allows Coach Pierce some flexibility. Depending on the matchup, he can go with the traditional bigs like Clint Capela or Dewayne Dedmon, or he can play a smaller, more dynamic 5 in Collins. Collins will never be Kevin Garnett, but if he's at least average on defense, then he's a net positive player.
Going forward, there's no immediate rush or urgency to extend Collins this offseason. The team will have matching rights next summer, so they can wait and see Collins "prove it" over a full regular season before committing to him. Still, if he's willing to sign a reasonable extension this offseason, the Hawks may be able to avoid the headache. Atlanta's a good situation for a young scorer like Collins, so the hope is that he'd be amenable to a reasonable deal that locks him up as part of this core.
step four: remember you're playing the long game, not Tetris
The Atlanta Hawks will have the # 6 pick in the draft, giving them the chance to add another young prospect to the team. We had been concerned about too much youth on this roster, but it's not worth giving up that pick for a veteran because we're not in "win now" mode yet. The team may as well keep collecting youngsters like they're pokemon.
With that top pick, they should keep that mindset, and not fall victim to the desire to find the right "fit" (hence the Tetris analogy.) Best available player. That's a good philosophy when you're drafting in the top 10 regardless, but it applies to this team more than most. The team needs to get a lot better, but there are no glaring issues in terms of positions or rotations. Trae Young will have PG on lockdown. Kevin Huerter will have a role as a wing. Better still, Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter are the types of BIG wings that can fit across several positions. The frontcourt should be fine as well between John Collins and Clint Capela. Given that, almost any position would be fine for the Hawks to select.
At PG, the top prospects (according to ESPN) are LaMelo Ball (N.Z.) and Tyrese Haliburton (Iowa State). Both players would be fine picks for the team, because both have the size and length to guard 1s or 2s and can play alongside Trae Young in that regard. Offensively, LaMelo and Trae may fight for the ball, but both have dynamic scoring potential that would make a tag-team dangerous. Haliburton would be an even easier fit, as he's had experience playing off the ball.
At SG/SF, the top prospect is Anthony Edwards (Georgia), who is likely to be off the board. I'm also a fan of Devin Vassell (Florida State), who projects as a good 3+D player that could soak up minutes at SG and SF for this team. He's one of the safer prospects in the class to me. I also like Deni Avdija (Israel), a ball moving forward with the size to play either SF or PF.
The hardest debate may be whether to select a big man that falls to them, be it James Wiseman (Memphis) or Onyeka Okongwu (USC). After acquiring Clint Capela (and potentially ponying up for a John Collins extension), the team may not want to invest much more into the position. Still, I'd hold firm to my "best player available" idea. Wiseman and Okongwu have major potential as defenders, which has been a problem area as discussed. It could be worth bringing them in and seeing how they develop. If they turn out to be the real deal, then it's perfectly fine to trade Capela or even Collins after the fact.
I'd have a harder time justifying the selection of two other top prospects: Killian Hayes (France) feels like too much of a pure point guard to me, and Obi Toppin feels like too much of a duplication to John Collins. Still, we've discussed 7 prospects that I've already given the "greenlight" to draft, which means at least 2 of those should be available when the Hawks are on the clock.
step five: give the kids some big brothers
We've harped a lot on the youth of this team already. Usually, that's seen as a positive. Rebuilding teams are supposed to be young, right? Sure. But there's some danger there of going overboard. If you're too young, and too inexperienced, then it's hard for the young pups to learn from those around them. It's hard to hold them accountable if there's no one else around to play their minutes. We can't have the blind leading the blind here.
Oftentimes, teams try to solve this issue by adding older veteran mentors to the locker room. The Hawks found the MOST veteran of them all by adding Vince Carter (age 43.) In theory, that's exactly what we're talking about. Wise old sages like Carter can help the kids grow up and learn to be professionals.
Still, I'm not sure that's enough. As respected as an old vet like Vince Carter may be, there's only so much influence he can have on a team if he's not playing. There's only so much influence he can have on a kid's habits if they're not in the same peer group. It's unlikely that 20-21 year olds are hanging out with guys in their mid to late 30s. They're in different stages in life, and probably have different interests and lifestyles.
Given that, I believe there should be more of a priority placed on "big brother" teammates in addition to older mentors. What do I mean by big brothers? I mean veterans who have good work ethic and character, but aren't over the hill. Young vets (ages 25-27 or so) who can still contribute on the court, and can still act as friends and peers to the kids. True role models. Consider this: who influenced your behavior more in high school: Your teachers? Or your friends? We need friends / big brothers that will spend more time with our kids, and teach them through osmosis if not outright lectures.
Consciously or not, the Memphis Grizzlies showed the value of this principle with their current season. They surrounded their rookies and sophomores with "big brother" vets like Tyus Jones (age 24) and Kyle Anderson (age 26.) Those guys happen to be high-IQ players and high-character teammates, but they're still young and good enough to play 20+ minutes a night. When you're checking all those boxes, you can influence the young players on your roster more effectively than the salty old dog who's basically an assistant coach.
It's hard for me to give recommendations for "big brothers" because I don't know these players behind the scenes outside of public reputation, but the idea would be to add smart, hard-working veterans in that 25-27 age range. We want vets who play unselfishly on offense, and play hard and disciplined on defense. Even if they're not great, they can help instill good habits with the team, on and off the court.
other offseason blueprints
BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
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Hollinger's top free agent centers Athletic article. Good list for all the center crazed Rockets fans out there

Tier 1: Max guys

Nobody.

Tier 2: More than MLE, less than Max

Hassan Whiteside — $17,200,380
Whiteside is an interesting case because he’s clearly a starting-caliber center on talent, but his defensive disinterest and stat-seeking reputation make him less popular in front offices. He’s also 31, which will likely limit his traction on any kind of long-term deal.
It’s easy to focus too much on the weaknesses and ignore some of the huge strengths. Whiteside shot 62.1 percent and led the league in blocks; a year earlier he led it in Rebound Rate. Few other bigs control the interior as well as he does, and those that do generally cost twice as much if they’re attainable at all.
That said, his lack of passing or long-range shooting ability can gum up an offense if his catches aren’t near the basket, and his presence basically requires defenses to play a drop coverage that keeps him near the rim.
What he is, in other words, is the perfect stopgap starter — just like he was for Portland this past season. There isn’t a lot of cap room to chase centers this summer, so he could end up back with the Blazers on a one-year deal, but I’m guessing some center-needy team (Charlotte? Detroit?) finds enough change under the cushions to pay him in the $15 million ballpark for a year or two.
Christian Wood — $15,830,309
What a difference a year makes. Wood was cut by the Pelicans a year ago; now he’s arguably the best free-agent center on the market. While his projected value for next season is lower than Whiteside’s, he’s also six years younger and thus much more likely to command a lucrative multi-year deal. It’s easy to sniff that he was playing in meaningless games for a team going nowhere, but that didn’t stop Wood from putting up big numbers at both ends both at 4 and 5, and both as a reserve and a starter.
It’s hard to dismiss his season as a fluke as well. Wood’s previous brief snippets of NBA minutes had been nearly as productive, and he dominated the G League during his frequent journeys to the minors. The question isn’t how he was so good, it’s what the hell took so long for an NBA team to start playing him.
At 25, he’s in perfect position to cash in, but alas it’s in a market thin on cap space and not hungry for centers. One other factor working against him is that the Pistons would greatly prefer to keep his first-year salary below $10 million, which would enable Detroit to use “Early Bird” rights and a minuscule cap hold of $1.7 million to retain him and leave $30 million for its other free-agent pursuits.
Even at a higher salary, a return to the Pistons still makes the most sense, but I could see a rebuilding Charlotte team also bidding up his price.
Andre Drummond (PO), Cleveland — $14,906,274
Drummond has a player option for $28 million, and there isn’t any great incentive for the Cavs to push him to opt-out and sign a longer deal for lower dollars. Drummond is a phenomenal rebounder and has some playmaking skill from the elbows, but overall grades out as a mid-tier starting center. This market is going to be so harsh for veteran centers that he might not get more than the midlevel if he opts out, and he can likely do much better a year from now.
Jakob Poeltl (R), San Antonio — $13,166,442
Poeltl is a traditional, unsexy center and that may cap his market at the midlevel exception, especially since the Spurs can match any offer. His lack of floor spacing capability and iffy mobility above the 3-point line conspire against him in the pace-and-space era.
But within his role, he’s really good. For a big lug, he’s actually pretty nimble, blocking shots around the rim, positioning himself well in drop coverages and dominating on the glass. Offensively it’s a similar story, as he can’t shoot and has a pretty blah post game, but combats that with a good feel, hard screens, and solid finishing around the basket.
The 25-year-old Austrian may not progress much beyond this level, but it’s pretty easy to see him as the Spurs’ starting center once LaMarcus Aldridge moves on. At anything in the $10 million range, he’s worth it.
Derrick Favors — $12,652,855
I’m guessing Favors won’t get this kind of money because of all the concerns about his knees, but he has been durable the past three seasons and posted a massive 21.4 Rebound Rate last season.
Of equal or greater concern might be his inability to present an offensive threat. He lacks the freight train rim runs of Poeltl and the vertical ability of Wood, and instead is mostly a humdrum short-hook and 12-foot pick-and-pop guy. Favors actually makes those shots at a halfway decent clip, but it’s just not something that scares an opposing defense.
That said, Favors remains a quietly productive player who would either be one of the best backup centers in the league or a good stopgap starter. That may or may not be in New Orleans, depending on the Pelicans’ other plans, but they can re-sign him without dipping into exception money and have plenty of room below the tax line to fit him in.

Tier 3: Mid-level guys

Kelly Olynyk (PO), Miami — $9,806,750
Olynyk has a player option for $12.6 million that he will likely pick up, as he’s 29 years old and viewed by most as an MLE-worthy player who can serve as a good third big. Theoretically, he could opt out to sign a long deal now, but he’s almost certainly better off taking his one-year payday and hitting the market next year when more money is available.
Montrezl Harrell — $8,816,566
This feels low, right? I strongly suspect Harrell gets the full MLE, at the absolute least, especially since he’s not an age issue at 26.
BORD$ may weigh Harrell’s playoff performance too heavily against him, but his position is a factor, too. Centers automatically have a much higher bar to clear statistically to differentiate themselves from the pack, as the replacement level for 5s is significantly higher. (Look at all the centers near the end of this list if you don’t believe me).
In terms of his real-life market, Harrell won the Sixth Man award while playing for one of the league’s best teams, but remains a tricky piece to fit in on a starter’s money. The offense is potent (31.7 points per 100 on 58.0 percent shooting is pretty ridiculous), but he’s not a shooter, so if he isn’t involved in the pick-and-roll game he can impact spacing. As with the other centers above, the lack of cap space teams and flimsy market for bigs will also conspire against him this offseason.
As far as this specific rating, Harrell gets dinged as a negative defender who is both undersized and not notably mobile. Harrell has the worst defensive PI-PM of any center whose name doesn’t end in “elicio,” dragging down his BORG to the point that his elite offense could only do so much to improve his valuation.

Tier 4: Less than MLE, more than minimum

Nerlens Noel — $6,511,224
Noel may have trouble getting to this number because of perceptions about his commitment level, but he was really good in OKC this year. In the playoffs against Houston, he showed himself to be far more switchable and versatile against the Rockets’ unique schemes than starter Steven Adams.
While Noel’s overall offensive limitations are pretty severe the dunk is basically his only shot he easily could play a more prominent role in a switch-heavy scheme that needs a rim-runner. He’s also 26, so a two-year deal would guarantee a team the sweet spot of his career.
Marc Gasol — $5,953,626
Gasol’s valuation here is understandable in light of the fact that he’s 36 and his offensive game mostly dried up in 2019-20, scoring just 13.6 points per 100 possessions. He’s a good passer who can camp above the 3-point line (38.5 percent last season) and keep the lane open for others, but is no longer a big threat around the basket.
However, contending teams might put a bigger price tag on him because his defensive game scales up so well to a playoff environment. He’s still one of the league’s best low-post defenders (important if, say, Joel Embiid is a potential opponent) and remains mobile and savvy enough to play any coverage scheme. Even at 35, Gasol’s defensive metrics were near the top of the league at this position.
JaVale McGee (PO), Lakers — $5,753,491
McGee vanished from the Lakers’ rotation as the playoffs wore on after starting 68 games for them in the regular season. He played well enough to earn a bigger deal than the $4.2 million player option he has for next season, but the lack of minutes in the postseason may hurt his market. At 32, it’s also hard to envision him scoring a multi-year deal.
As with several of the other bigs in this tier, McGee is accomplished as a lob threat and shot-blocker but less so in terms of spacing the floor and defending above the 3-point line. He’s likely looking at a 20-minute role in some team’s center rotation, whether it’s back in L.A. or in a new uniform. His opt-out decision will be a tough one in terms of money, but he’d be hard-pressed to find a better basketball situation than his current one.
Enes Kanter (PO), Boston — $5,641,787
Kanter has a player option for $5.0 million, and this valuation says he has one of the more interesting decisions of any player this offseason. Adding to the complexity: If Kanter does opt-in he’s likely to be traded because of the Celtics’ luxury tax situation and will have little control over his destination. It’s possible he’d rather pick his team than have the Celtics do it for him, and gamble that he can get roughly the same money either way.
Kanter’s rough and tumble game probably fits better on a team that needs his offense more than the Celtics do. He’s one of the few players so good at scoring on the block for post-ups to be valuable, and he’s a monstrous offensive rebounder. The tricky part is how to hide him on defense, where he is slow-footed defending pick-and-rolls and struggles to protect the rim. Those limitations have pushed him out of playoff games in recent years and may limit his market too.
Serge Ibaka — $5,521,235
Subjectively, this number is low and I expect Ibaka’s next contract to come in around the MLE or a bit more. Why is it just $5.5 million? As with Harrell above, the market for centers in general isn’t that rosy. Also, while the eye test said Ibaka had a pretty solid year in 2019-20, bumping his scoring rate and hitting 38.5 percent from 3, his advanced numbers were more skeptical. Ibaka’s on-off numbers were the worst of any of the nine Raptors with at least 1,000 minutes, and by a pretty wide margin. That didn’t help his case.
Combine that with his age (31 this coming season) and the fact he mostly plays the league’s most replaceable position (94 percent of his minutes were at center, according to Cleaning the Glass), and he projects at a much lower valuation than his brand name might suggest.
Nikola Milutinov, CSKA Moscow
The Spurs still own the rights to the 25-year-old seven-footer after selecting him late in the first round in 2015. He’s since emerged as one of the best bigs in Europe, albeit with a game firmly rooted in the 1990s that may not translate as well across the pond. Think of him as a high-end backup center type who would make sense in the $5 million range. Also, note that he is not bound by the rookie salary scale for first-rounders because the Spurs drafted him more than three years ago.
Isaiah Hartenstein — $3,693,329
This number is on the high side, a result of BORG evaluating Hartenstein on some pretty small minutes samples over the past two seasons. Nonetheless, the league’s bottom feeders should be doing their homework on this guy. Hartenstein is only 22, remains 2-way eligible, and murdered the G League during his 14-game stint there last season. I’d be interested to see how he fares in an offensive role that went beyond “watch James Harden and dunk when he passes it to you.”
I’d like him more if he could shoot, but that part may not come around. Hartenstein also struggles on defense and his awkward hunched-over posture doesn’t help him with the eye test. Nonetheless, there should be a role for him someplace.
Mason Plumlee — $3,344,137
Plumlee still has his uses, but he’s looking at a major pay cut from the $14 million he made a year ago. Plumlee can’t shoot, struggles from the free-throw line, and has a maddening tendency to call his own number on post-ups. However, he’s a useful reserve because he remains an athletic lob threat even at age 30, and he’s a good passer and ballhandler. Defensively his size and mobility are a plus but he can be his own worst enemy rushing into mistakes, such as the play where he lost Antony Davis at the end of Game 2 of the conference finals.
Overall, I think this number is perhaps a shade low and that he’s more likely to get the room exception (about $5 million). Given the juggling Denver will need to do to remain below the tax level, I’m not sure that payday is coming from the Nuggets.
Dwight Howard — $3,137,516
Howard played his part to a tee for the champs last season, providing an energy defender, occasional roller, and frequent troller. With limited minutes Howard made sure he got his licks in, committing an eye-popping 8.1 fouls per 100 possessions. He’s 35 and his offensive game is now extremely limited because he’s lost so much leaping ability, but he still moves well laterally and books up and down the court in short-minute bursts.
Alex Len — $3,067,904
Len struggled in 2019-20 after a strong 2018-19 campaign, but he’s huge, rebounds well, and converts lobs and passes around the rim. He’s not a super athlete and has to play drop coverage, and his efforts to develop a 3-point game have been halting. At 27, however, there still is some tread left on these tires.
Skal Labissiere (R), Atlanta — $2,930,540
Acquired from Portland in a trade deadline salary dump, Labissiere nonetheless may have a future in Atlanta. The Hawks likely will decline to give Labissiere a $3.5 million qualifying offer, especially with two other expensive centers on their books, but can bring him back on a minimum deal and see if the 24-year-old Haitian can find a home on his third team.
Labissiere is a soft defensive presence but proved an accurate mid-range shooter with a soft touch when pressed into service in Portland, making 58 percent of his long 2s; extending that range to the 3-point line could unlock a lot more value.
Ante Zizic — $2,877,801
Zizic’s age (23) helps him grade out as a slightly-better-than-minimum option at the center spot via BORD$, but in reality, I doubt he’ll be back in the NBA. He’s a good rebounder who plays hard and can shoot from short range, but a defensive liability and not a floor-spacer. He only played 22 games last season after the Cavs declined his fourth-year option. I’d expect him to return to Europe.
Cheick Diallo (T), Phoenix — $2,705,142
The Suns will likely decline Diallo’s affordable $1.8 million option for next season to open up more cap space, but he could easily be back in Phoenix on another minimum deal. The 24-year-old is badly undersized for the middle at 6-8, 219, but has become a good short-to-mid range shooter who could really up his value by extending the range to the 3-point line. Doing so would also make him more viable at the 4, which is a much better fit for him at his size.

Tier 5: Minimum guys ($2.6M or less)

Note: I did not include a dollar figure in this tier, as at this level all their contracts are proscribed by the league minimum contract rules.
If you really want to understand the concept of replacement level and why the valuations on the centers above might seem low, just look at the list below. All these guys projected as at or below replacement level for an NBA center this year, even though several appeared to be reasonably effective. The bar is just higher at the 5.
Harry Giles
Giles has become a hot conversation topic in free-agency circles despite a very ordinary resume to date, and I do expect a team to take the plunge on him at a price above the minimum salary. The Kings declined his fourth-year option but could still bring him back at a salary up to $3,976,510, and with new management in Sacramento it’s possible they go that route.
I would have trouble seeing them get outbid, but I suppose it’s possible. Giles is just 22 and was an elite player as a teenager before a series of injuries sapped some athleticism. He is a good passer from the elbows but his narrowish frame is slightly undersized at center; however, he’s almost forced to pay there by his limited shooting range and somewhat stiff movement.
Also, there’s the little matter of the fouls. Giles committed 8.7 fouls per 100 possessions last season, an obscenely high rate that led all players with at least 500 minutes played.
Giles’s injury history also is scary, although at his likely price it’s much less of a concern. I only listed one-year value here, but Giles makes a good flier on a multi-year, low-dollar deal for a rebuilding team with some leftover money.
Aron Baynes
Subjectively I like Baynes better than several of the names just above him. It’s a surprise to see Baynes down here given how well he played early in the season for Phoenix, and overall this still might have been his best statistical season.
But I can see the other side of the argument, too. Baynes’s play really tailed off the second half of the year and the Suns played their best basketball once he was out of the lineup. That last part is perhaps unfair — it’s not his fault the other dudes caught fire — but the deeper you dig on Baynes the iffier his resume looks.
Let’s start with the positive: He made shots. Baynes shot 35.1 percent on his goofy-looking push 3s, and 58.2 percent inside the arc, and shot enough to tally 24.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s really good for a center, although one can fairly question whether that 3-point rate is sustainable.
Nonetheless, neither PI-PM nor Raptor saw him as a notably impactful offensive player, and defensively he struggled to make an impact. Baynes saw both his rebound and block rates dip sharply at age 33, and also had a sky-high foul rate (7.2 per 100).
Overall, BORG saw him as slightly better than a minimum player a year ago, but with the age adjustment for 2020-21 he’s with the minimum guys. Too harsh? Perhaps. Certainly, somebody in need of a center will sign him, likely with a chunk of exception money.
John Henson
Of the bigs likely to be available with the one-year minimum, I like Henson the best. He’s pretty mobile despite pushing 30, and his lack of muscle in the middle is increasingly becoming less of a concern because of how the league has changed. His defensive metrics last season were very good while toiling in anonymity for two terrible teams last year, including a high block rate.
Offensively Henson is no perimeter threat but is still long and bouncy enough to shoot 78.5 percent at the rim last year and he has a pretty effective jump hook game against switches. I wouldn’t go crazy here, but I’d be pretty okay with him as my fifth big.
Tristan Thompson
Thompson averaged a double-double last year, believe it or not, but it’s hard to look at his year and say he was truly productive with a 51.8 percent 2-point shooting percentage and a jump in turnovers. The one thing he still does in bunches is grab rebounds, yanking down 18.6 percent of missed shots last season. Defensively he’s unspectacular, although he did boost his block rate last season. Overall I’d lump him in with Henson at the top of my minimum contract center pool.
Drew Eubanks (R), San Antonio
Eubanks gave the Spurs some good minutes in the bubble, including an impactful performance against New Orleans that inspired me to write a mini-ode to his play.
Bigger picture, the Spurs’ 2-way is ready to sign a deal for a full roster spot and likely deserves one after his 2019-20 performance. He’s a bit undersized for a center at 6-9 and doesn’t have any shooting range, but has enough explosion around the basket to rim run effectively and is capable of playing solid drop coverage as a rim protector. At 23, there’s still hope for more.
Noah Vonleh
It seems like he’s been around forever but Vonleh is just 25 and he still teases with the idea that he might put it all together. While cycling through six different teams, Vonleh at various times has flashed ballhandling skill, some 3-point capability, plus rebounding, and switchability, but never for very long and never all at the same time.
If I were a rebuilding team, I still might be tempted to bring him on a minimum flier. His last two seasons were roughly replacement level, and hints remain that he might deliver something better in the future.
Kyle Alexander (R), Miami
Miami’s 2-way was one of the best players in the G League and could be the next player to break out in the Heat’s Sioux Falls-NBA pipeline. A bouncy, skinny rim runner who played just 14 NBA minutes last season, Alexander probably comes back on another 2-way or a minimum deal.
Donta Hall
Similar to Alexander above — his frequent rival over four years of Alabama-Tennessee games in the SEC — Hall is an undersized 5 who dominated in the G League and is ready to take the next step up the ladder. Unlike Alexander, no team controls his rights, and he should be a target for rebuilding teams in need of frontcourt depth.
Willy Hernangomez
When I watched him as a younger player in Spain, I always thought Hernangomez would eventually be able to make 3s as a pro, but it hasn’t happened yet. It needs to because the rest of his game isn’t quite good enough to stay in a rotation otherwise. Hernangomez rebounds, can score in the post, and has good footwork around the basket, but is a minus defender and makes way too many turnovers. At 26, time is running out.
Meyers Leonard
Leonard actually started 49 games for Miami this year, albeit not very productively, before the Heat deep-sixed him in the playoffs. His biggest selling point, by far, is a 39.0 percent career mark on 3s, including 41.4 percent last season. While it’s a low release and he has to be completely set, that weapon gives him some offensive value. Leonard can also fly down the lane for the occasional dunk, but rim running isn’t his specialty.
Defensively, his game is much more suspect, with poor rebound and block rates and little capability to guard beyond the 3-point line. He still belongs in the league and would be a sensible target as a third center on a minimum deal, especially for teams who can periodically weaponize his shooting in the right matchup.
Mike Muscala (PO), Oklahoma City
Muscala has a player option for $2.2 million, which is just the minimum, but I can’t imagine a scenario where he does any better than that after he fell out of the Thunder’s big man rotation this season.
Thon Maker
Maker becomes an interesting proposition if he can convert 3s closer to a 40 percent clip. At 34.4 percent for his career, however, there’s nothing to see here. He offers some intriguing switchability at the defensive end and has a plus motor, but he doesn’t have enough muscle to score near the basket and he fouls in bunches as a result of his strength disadvantage.
Udonis Haslem
Not a lot to discuss here in terms of basketball since he never plays, but one presumes he’ll be back in his role as a glorified assistant coach with Miami.
Moses Brown (R), Portland
The Blazers’ raw 2-way only played NBA 35 minutes but managed to swat five shots in that time. He put up some impressive stats in the G League as a 20-year-old, although the fact he had just five assists in 30 games is a bit troubling. I’d expect him to be back on another two-way or a minimum deal in Portland’s player development incubator.
Bismack Biyombo
Biyombo has lost a bit off bounce the past few years so his rebounding and shot-blocking aren’t quite in the elite territory of his early-mid 20s. Which is unfortunate, because his offensive contribution is near-zero as a non-shooter without much in the way of ball skills. He still could figure into the equation next year if a team needs a third center.
Ian Mahinmi
Like a lot of the centers on this list, Mahinmi offers decent mobility and plus shot-blocking but just doesn’t pack enough offensive punch for the way teams play in 2020. He turns 34 in early November and may have a difficult time procuring even a minimum deal.
Damian Jones, (R), Atlanta
Somehow started more than 20 games each of the past two seasons. I’m guessing there won’t be a three-peat. I have no expectation that the Hawks will give him a qualifying offer or make any other effort to retain him, as they basically replaced him with Clint Capela and Dewayne Dedmon at the trade deadline and likely will keep Skal Labissiere above as the third center.
Jones actually cut his turnover rate last season and scored pretty efficiently around the basket, but despite being big and fairly athletic he is weirdly awful at rebounding (just 12.5 percent Rebound Rate in 2019-20) and inconsistent at best on defense. No longer 2-way eligible, he’ll likely have to rebuild his stock in the G League and hope for a 10-day.
Jahlil Okafor
Came to the NBA in the wrong century. Okafor can get buckets on the low block, but nobody wants to post up anymore and he’s far too limited in the other phases of the game —particularly defensively—to warrant a significant role.
Kyle O’Quinn
Physical, high-IQ guy who is popular in the locker room, but he’s 30 and lost his job to Norvell Pelle last year. O’Quinn’s lack of offensive mojo in particular (just 15.8 points per 100 last year) likely limits his attractiveness.
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2020 Offseason Review Series - Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns

Division: AFC North
Record: 6 - 10
Introduction
Hey everyone u/goingsouthhiker here to provide you more information than you ever wanted to know about the Cleveland Browns. My first distinct memory as a child is my fathers face in stunned silence as Ernest Byner fumbled at the goaline. I have been gifted through some sick hereditary defect a lifelong love of the Browns. so here you go.
 
Coaching Changes/GM Changes
 
Freddie Kitchens Fired  
On December 29th, 2019, the Browns fired head coach Freddie Kitchens. This is the culmination of a coaching hire that seemed to be entirely based upon folksy blue collar catch phrases “if you don’t wear brown and orange, you don’t matter” and a good relationship with Baker Mayfield.  
Some of Freddie's greatest hits included
  • 4th and 9 - Draw Play
  • Madden Style 5 WR streaks from your own goal line
  • Send out the punt team on 4th-and-11 down 17 points in the fourth quarter to the New England Patriots, only to change his mind and take a deliberate false start rather than burn a timeout.
  • 4th and 1 on the goal line and not have Nick Chubb on the field
 
John Dorsey Fired  
On December 31st, 2019, the Browns and general manager John Dorsey mutually agreed to part ways after an up and down tenure that brought in a lot of talent but ultimately the decision to hire Kitchens and some questionable high draft picks sank him.
 
Kevin Stefanski Hired  
On January 13th, 2020, the Browns hired former Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as head coach. This is another first time head coach hire for the browns after an exhaustive coaching search. This hire is the one Paul Depodesta of Moneyball Fame banged the table for prior to the promotion of Kitchens so ultimately the nerds won the battle a year too late.
 
Andrew Berry Hired  
On January 27th, 2020, the Browns hired former Philadelphia Eagles' vice president of football operations Andrew Berry as general manager. Berry previously served as the Browns' vice president of player personnel from 2016–18 under Sashi Brown. At age 32, Berry became the youngest general manager in NFL history.
Berry has been considered in league circles as the next great rising front office star even from his early days in Indianapolis. Ivy league educated and an analytics darling now paired again with Depodesta the Browns will be heavy into analytics and efficiency in their decision making.
 
Alex Van Pelt Hired  
On January 29th 2020, the Browns hired former Cincinnati Bengals' quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator. Van Pelt, who served as offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills in 2009, replaced Todd Monken, who was not retained by Stefanski.
Nobody is quite sure who will be calling plays on game day, The one thing going for this hire is when Van Pelt was the QB Coach for Green Bay Aaron Rodgers was super angry about Van Pelt being fired so there is that.
 
Joe Woods Hired  
On February 7th 2020, the Browns hired former San Francisco 49ers' defensive backs coach Joe Woods as defensive coordinator. Woods, who previously served as the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos from 2017–18, replaced Steve Wilks, who was not retained by Stefanski
Woods is a man of mystery he has coached just about every scheme in existence and has given the ever popular "We will tailor our defense to our personnel" answer every time somebody tries to get anything out of him in regards to what he plans to run in Cleveland.
 
Free Agency
Players lost/cut
Player Position New Team
Joe Schobert LB Jacksonville
Christian Kirksey LB Green Bay
Eric Kush G Las Vegas
Demetrius Harris TE Chicago
T.J. Carrie CB Indianapolis
Damarious Randall S Las Vegas
Greg Robinson T Prison
Rickey Seals Jones TE Kansas City
Adarius Taylor LB Released
Morgan Burnett S Released
Eric Murray S Houston
Going into the 2019 season the Browns defense had a lack of quality depth at LB and Safety. So naturally the first thing the Browns do in Free Agency is let go the remaining veteran players at LB and Safety. I can't say for certain this was a bad thing as you will see below.
 
Top Losses
 
Joe Shobert LB - Was a tackling machine and rare pro bowler on this team, however too many of those tackles were made 8-10 yards downfield on run plays. His coverage skills were raw as well so I get not paying him big money.
Christian Kirksey LB - This one hurts a bit not due to production on the field as Kirko was hurt a lot! But more so as he was that beloved master of the Dawg Check and was a great team guy.
Damarious Randall S - A solid player who the Browns converted back to Safety but was always a bit of a headcase. He will be remembered best as the player who intercepted a Bengals pass and handed the ball to Hue Jackson on the Bengals sideline.
 
Players Signed/Brought Back
Player Position Contract
Kareem Hunt RB 1yr $3.25M
Case Keenum QB 3yr $18M
Andy Janovich FB Trade w/Broncos
Jack Conklin T 3yr $42M
Austin Hooper TE 4yr $44M
Karl Joseph S 1yr $2.5M
Andrew Billings DL 1yr $3.5M
Kevin Johnson CB 1yr $3.5M
Andrew Sendejo S 1yr $2.5M
Evan Brown C No Details
Donovan Olumba CB No Details
JoJo Natson WR 1yr $1M
BJ Goodson LB 1yr $2.4M
Chris Hubbard T Restructured
Adrian Clayborn EDGE 1yr $2.4M
Olivier Vernon EDGE Restructured
Myles Garrett EDGE So Much Money
Rashard Higgins WR 1yr 910k
 
Man this is a list... Ok so there were very few holes on Offense going into Free Agency but the ones that stood out were both tackles and depth at tight end. The Browns ultimately solved one tackle spot and TE really early in Free Agency with what most considered the best available players at their position.
On the Defensive side we had a open call for any experienced body who wanted to take a 1 year prove it deal. So much depth added via players that fell through the cracks on their former team.
 
Top Signings
 
Jack Conklin RT - The top right tackle in free agency, had a nice season for the titans after coming off a major injury the year before. Can be a All-Pro caliber RT if healthy. Really filled a huge need.
Austin Hooper TE - or "HooooooP" As the falcons fans tell me I am to call him. Filled a big need for reliable catches at the TE position. With David Njoku in the dog house, unable to catch anything, and now asking for a trade this is a big get for the Browns.
Andy Janovich FB - By far my personal favorite signing. Acquired in a trade with the Broncos he is one of the best pure Fullbacks left in the game. I expect him to be a Fan Favorite quickly. There is nothing more that Cleveland Fans adore than elevating a former Broncos fullback to Legendary status.(See Peyton Hillis)
Case Keenum - Browns fans all hope that the Baker Mayfield of last year was a product of really bad coaching, however Keenum can win games in the NFL and is a familiar face to new coach Stefanski having had a career year with Minnesota with Stefanski as his QB coach. I am much more confident in having Keenum as the backup than Garrett Gilbert.
New Contracts - The Browns have ensured Myles Garrett will be a Brown for a long while, placed a 2nd round tender on former rushing champ Kareem hunt, and after briefly flirting with Clowney decided to restructure Olivier Vernon to a much better contract number befitting his oft injured yet surprisingly productive season.
 
 
Draft - Cribbed from u/Marzman315 with permission who did a very excellent defending the draft and I agree with it in it's entirety. The Grades are mine.
 
Round Player Position
1.10 Jedrick Wills T
2.44 Grant Delpit S
3.88 Jordan Elliott DT
3.97 Jacob Phillips ILB
4.115 Harrison Bryant TE
5.160 Nick Harris C
6.187 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR
 
1.10 - Jedrick Wills Jr., Offensive Tackle Alabama Grade A  
As expected, the Browns used the tenth overall pick on a tackle. The tackle turned out to be Jedrick Wills Jr., blindside blocker for Tua Tagovailoa. The former four star high school prospect started all 28 games for the Crimson Tide over his sophomore and and junior years. As a second team All-American and first team All-SEC player, he paved the way for Alabama's elite offense with his quick feet, smooth redirection, extremely powerful anchor and strength, and absolutely punishing punch.  
This pick was overwhelmingly approved of by analysts both internally and externally. Joe Thomas released a reaction video that was enthusiastic to say the least. He made it clear that Wills was his ideal target for the Browns at 10th overall. The front office and coaching staff made it known that Wills was their priority target going into the draft, and were entertaining the possibility of trading up for him, but ultimately the draft board fell their way and they got their man at 10.  
The only negative to the drafting of Wills is that he has only played right tackle in his college career, and given the free agent signing of right tackle Jack Conklin, Wills is going to be expected to transition to left tackle to start his NFL career. Joe Thomas also gave input on this, and stated that while the transition is difficult it is easier to do early in your career, and that he would personally take Wills under his wing and mentor him. Between Joe Thomas's guidance and the coaching of veteran offensive line coach Bill Callahan, not to mention the phenomenal talent of Wills, the transition should be doable for Wills with a minimum of serious difficulty. The protection of franchise QB Baker Mayfield is of paramount importance, and this selection reflects that.
 
2.44 - Grant Delpit, Safety LSU Grade A  
Most Browns fans anticipated that a safety specializing in coverage would be a priority target on day 2. With replacing Damarious Randall a necessity, the Browns zeroed in on LSU standout Grant Delpit. Boasting phenomenal range, excellent ball skills, and tremendous athleticism for the position, he brings an impressive skill set to the team.
Once considered a top 15 to top 20 pick, injuries and questions about tackling caused his value to drop a bit over the season. His broken clavicle in 2018 likely led to a hesitation in committing fully to tackles, and his production in that sense dropped in 2019. Despite some questions about open field tackling, Delpit's football IQ, versatility, and ball skills are enough to excite Browns fans into thinking that they found a solid starter.
 
3.88 - Jordan Elliot, Defensive Tackle Missouri Grade B  
In a post draft interview, Browns Chief Strategist Paul DePodesta revealed that obtaining 2021 draft capital was a priority coming into the draft. Depth along the defensive line has been an issue for the Browns for some time. Both of these issues were addressed with the Browns first pick in the third round.
Jordan Elliot is well known in the scouting community for being the darling prospect of Pro Football Focus, who consistently rated him as a first round prospect. While he lacks some power and length, he has a lightning quick first step and fluid pass rushing skills. His skill set doesn't exactly project him to be an every down player, but he can be a strong gap penetrating 3T rotating along the Browns defensive line.
 
3.97 - Jacob Phillips, Linebacker LSU Grade C Minus
Joe Shobert led the Browns in tackles in two of the last three seasons. Replacing that production was certainly a concern of the Browns. Phillips is an athletic linebacker that led a powerhouse LSU team in tackles. He is strong against the run, and plays fast and strong with solid instincts.
Phillips likely may not replace Shobert's pass coverage, as coverage skills were a clear negative on Phillips' scouting report. But as far as reliable tackling goes Phillips can contribute early, especially on special teams and base defense.
 
4.115 - Harrison Bryant, Tight End Florida Atlantic Grade A
Kevin Stefanski's offense notably uses multiple tight end sets and 12 personnel. Harrison Bryant is a very exciting receiving threat at the TE position. He projects mainly as a depth player behind Austin Hooper and David Njoku (if he remains on the team) currently while he develops his overall game, but he likely sees the field a bit as a rookie. He doesn't bring much to the table as far as blocking goes, but there is absolutely some exciting upside here.
 
5.160 - Nick Harris, Guard/Center Washington Grade C
While the Browns O-line was the subject of well deserved criticisms in 2019, the interior of the line was quietly fairly solid. Left guard Joel Bitonio is among the best in the league at his position and Center JC Tretter is a pro bowl caliber player. Wyatt Teller was unspectacular but played well enough to bring a bit of stability to the position. Lacking at the interior o-line was any sort of depth.
With years of experience at guard and center, Nick Harris will add solid depth and may compete with Teller for the starting right guard spot. He is a smart and nimble pass blocker, and while he doesn't have ideal size for the position (6'1" 300 LB) he uses his low center of gravity effectively to secure a solid base.
 
6.187 - Donovan Peoples-Jones, Wide Receiver Michigan Grade A (upside)
Wide receiver was sneakily a bit of a need for the Browns going into the 2020 draft. Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry are among the best 1/2 starters in the NFL, but after them the depth chart is thin.
Peoples-Jones is a perfect prospect to gamble on. He showed flashes of phenomenal play while at Michigan, and was considered at one point to be a future first round pick and NFL star. Injuries and abysmal QB play severely hindered his college career. His production did not come close to matching his talent. He is athletic, runs clean routes, gets solid separation, and is good with the ball in his hands. There is a lot of talent here that can be developed.
 
Undrafted Free Agents:
Soloman Ajayi, Linebacker, Liberty
Elijah Benton, Safety, Liberty
Ja'Marcus Bradley, Wide Receiver, Louisiana
Tony Brown, Wide Receiver, Colorado
Kevin Davidson, Quarterback, Princeton
Drake Dorbeck, Offensive Tackle/Guard, Southern Mississippi
A.J. Green, Cornerback, Oklahoma State
Brian Herrion, Runningback, Georgia
Jameson Houston, Cornerback, Baylor
Benny LeMay, Runningback, Charlotte
Jovante Moffit, Safety, Middle Tennessee
George Obinna, Defensive End, Sacremento State
Alex Taylor, Offensive Tackle, South Carolina State
Jeffrey Whatley, Defensive Tackle, South Alabama
Nate Wieting, Tight End, Iowa
 
Going Forward:
You will have a hard time finding a Browns fan who did not love this draft. They filled all of their pressing needs without reaching, were savvy navigating the board with trades, and acquired 2021 draft picks. The Browns earned one of only four A+ grades from PFF. While the roster is not without some holes, particularly at linebacker, this is a team that is built to compete. With improvements on the offense that will hopefully come with better coaching and a brand new O-line, the Browns are absolutely in a better position this year than last
 
 
Projected 53 Man Roster (starters in bold):
OFFENSE:
QB - Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum (2)
RB - Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Dontrelle Hilliard, (5)
FB - Andy Janovich (6)
WR - Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Taywan Taylor, Donovan Peoples-Jones, JoJo Natson (12)
TE - Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Harrison Bryant (15)
OT - Jedrick Wills Jr. (LT), Jack Conklin (RT), Chris Hubbard, Drew Forbes (19)
OG - Joel Bitonio (LG), Wyatt Teller (RG), Colby Gossett (22)
C - JC Tretter, Nick Harris (24)
 
DEFENSE:
DE - Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon, Adrian Clayborn, Chad Thomas (28)
DT - Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, Andrew Billings, Jordan Elliot, Daniel Ekuale (33)
LB - Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki, BJ Goodson, Jacob Phillips, Jermaine Grace, Tae Davis (39)
CB - Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Kevin Johnson, Terrance Mitchell, Donnie Lewis Jr., Tavierre Thomas (45)
SS - Karl Joseph, J.T. Hassell (47)
FS - Grant Delpit, Andrew Sandejo, Sheldrick Redwine (50)
SPECIALISTS
K - Austin Seibert (51)
P - Jamie "Scottish Hammer" Gillan (52)
LS - Charley Hughlett (53)
 
 
What to expect in 2020
 
QB Grade: Incomplete
Baker Mayfield - This is the wildcard for the entire team. There is arguably not a better supporting cast in the league for a Quarterback. Assuming at minimum competent coaching there is no excuse for Mayfield going into year 3. There will be a long leash I am sure but Keenum is waiting in the wings if Mayfield looks like he did last year as opposed to the record setter he was in year 1.  
As goes the arm of Mayfield so goes the Browns Playoff hopes.
 
RB Grade: A+++
Nick Chubb - Quiet, professional, will run you over and laugh at your pitiful tackle attempts. Nick Chubb is a beast, lead the league in yards after contact and nearly won the rushing title. In this new RB friendly system with an improved O-Line and an actual fullback Chubb is going to eat.
 
Kareem Hunt - It's not often that your backup running back is also a league rushing champion. Last year after serving his suspension he came in and made quite a few spectacular plays in the passing game and showed he still had that spark in the running game. This one Two punch is going to be fun to watch!
 
Pass Catchers WTE Grade: A
Goodness where to start... This might be an unpopular take but Jarvis Landry is the Best WR on this team and a top 5 pass catcher in the league. He has the most catches ALL TIME in a players first 6 seasons in the league. No longer relegated to slot duties as he was in Miami he had is best year in 2019.
 
Both Landry and OBJ went over 1000 yards last year which is stunning to me because it felt like both were under utilized all year long. With an increased emphasis on the running game and a deceptive scheme there should be a lot of wide open receivers for the Browns this year
Adding in a third down catch machine in Austin Hooper oh my.. The room is stacked.
 
Offensive Line Grade: B Minus
The OL has been a major issue at the tackle spot since Joe Thomas retired. It now feels like the Browns have the complete package assuming Wills can make the transition to LT in this super strange offseason. The interior is still super solid. There will be a lot riding on the rookie.
 
Defensive Line A Minus
Oh noooooo MYLES!!!! How different would 2019 have been had Myles Garrett kept his cool. Fresh off signing a new mega deal Myles Garrett needs to be the great pass rusher he has been in his first few seasons. He was averaging a sack per game before the suspension and should easily go into double digit sacks this season as well.
Olivier Vernon when healthy is a QB pressure machine but he has problems staying on the field. When he is playing though He and Myles make a great bookend.
The interior is solid with Sheldon Richardson and Larry O, in the middle. This will probably be Richardson's last year with the Browns so I expect him to show out to push for that one last contract.
 
Linebackers Grade: I was told there would be no math
Do I believe in Mack Wilson? Ask me on a day he writes a fired up hype tweet and I will say he is going to be a stud. In the quiet times though I think to myself boy I hope the opposing team does not have a decent tight end because our LB core is going to get burned. I don't know what to think of the rest of the room as it is totally shuffled. Maybe Takitaki is something more than a special teamer? Was B.J. Goodson a diamond waiting to be polished?
The Browns need Takitaki, Wilson, and Phillips to grow up fast in this defense. Goodson has been a part-time player in his career and should have the opportunity to get more playing time than he has had to date in his career. With a one-year prove-it deal, Goodson has the motivation to show that he deserves a multi-year deal.
This is by far on paper the weak point of this team.
 
Cornerback Grade: B
This is the Ward and Greedy Show. Ward is occasionally dinged up but most of the time he is a shut down corner. Super young and is a willing tackler if a bit reckless in his form. Ward has the potential to be a top 5 CB in the league.
Greedy Williams had a decent season on the other side when he got into the game but it is his spot full time now and he needs to step up. The talk when he was drafted was he could not tackle. (Much like Delpit this year) but he showed he was more than willing to tackle and even come up and rush the passer and play the run when needed. With Ward on the other side he is going to be targeted a LOT.
 
Safety Grade: D
Who the hell knows.. Really. I know I said that Linebacker was the weak point but man Safety is as much of a question. Karl Joseph is a Thumper and with that he ends up injured a bit. Delpit has huge potential but is a rookie at FS and supposedly has tackling issues. Outside of those two you have Sendejo in his 11th year in the league and Sheldrick Redwine who was a beast in college but has yet to really prove himself in the league.
Here is hoping Delpit lives up to his potential because man this is a thin group.
 
Specialists Grade: B
Scottish Hammer That is all... The Punter might be the best form tackler on the team hopefully he does not have to do that this season. Or we can stick him in at Linebacker.
But seriously things stabilized with two rookie kickers last year and they both look serviceable. Jojo Natson was brought in to do one thing and that is to return kicks.
 
 
Training Camp Battles
 
On Offense there is very little up for grabs maybe who wins the 3rd WR spot but given Higgins relationship with Mayfield it is his job to lose.
On Defense a lot of the battle is going to be who shows up at LB and Safety as discussed above. there are slim pickings at both positions and really the only people who seem to be safe are Mack Wilson just due to the playing time he got last season and Karl Joseph just based upon his experience in the league.
 
 
Scheme Descriptions
 
Offense: Kevin Stefanski as Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in 2019 produced an offense determined to run the ball and crush teams with play-action. Under the watchful eye of consultant Gary Kubiak he installed a Wide Zone blocking scheme that is time tested and very OL and RB friendly. It is considered a Run first offense which should play right into the Browns strengths. If Mayfield can tighten up the play action fake game the Wide outs should feast as well.
 
Defense - Who knows? I am not even sure Joe Woods knows yet what type of Defense the Browns will run. During his tenure as the Denver Broncos defensive coordinator he ran a Base 3-4 Under defense. During his time with the Minnesota Vikings the team ran a base 4-3 which is also the case for the San Francisco 49ers defense this past season.
When asked Woods usually replies with something along the lines of "it's a secret"
Based on the Browns current roster,the preference would be an attacking 4-3 scheme given the strength on the defensive line and questionable linebacker core.
 
 
Season Predictions
It is an impossible task to predict a Browns season. Typically you could say 3 - 5 wins and chances are you would be right. This season with a new head coach, no preseason, maybe no training camp who the hell knows. It is a weak schedule on paper.
So instead of going game by game I am going to make some bold predictions.
  • The Browns will make the playoffs
  • Nick Chubb will win the rushing title
  • Jarvis Landry and OBJ will both go over 1000 yards again
  • The Browns will split all of the division games
  • The Steelers, Ravens, and Art Modell still suck
  • Final Record 10-6 with a Wild Card game win
 
 
Thank You's and Final Thoughts
If you read all this you are a better person than I. Big thanks to u/Marzman315 for lending me the draft section. Also a hearty Woof Woof to u/Usuallyrelevant who keeps us entertained over at Browns
Also the crew at LakeErieBros for sharing together our collective misery.
And finally I want to thank the Bull City Browns Backers in Durham NC for being awesome and showing up to every game with hope in your heart and unwavering dedication.

I did not hear from the non fan for the post so maybe we can add it later.

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